Covid UK: What a complete Australian style border lock would mean

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The UK is only days away from its first experiment with Australian Covid-style border restrictions, which will force high-risk arrivals into 10-day hotel quarantines.

But some are calling for the government to go further, insisting that only a complete border closure will protect Britain from variants of Covid overseas.

Enthusiasts point to Australia as a prime example of the benefits – 28,000 Covid cases, 900 deaths, an economy that has already started to grow, and bars, restaurants and shops that are open.

But border closings have also been extremely disruptive Down Under: tens of thousands of Australians have been stranded abroad, states rush each time cases escape quarantine, and there is still no plan on how to relax the measures.

If the same system were brought to the UK, these problems would likely not only be mirrored but also exacerbated as this country is far less isolated than Australia and far more dependent on its neighbors to function.

Meanwhile, that same confidence means the system would be far less likely to protect the UK, which means the economic and human costs could far outweigh the benefits.

Here, MailOnline describes exactly what the system is, what it would look like if brought here, and the main differences that make it less likely to work:

What is the Australian system?

Australia has completely closed its borders, which means no one is allowed to enter or leave the country unless they have an exemption – the most common are citizens returning from abroad and key workers doing important business.

Australia has completely closed its borders to arrivals and even those exempted from the travel ban must be quarantined in hotels for 14 days upon arrival

But even then, most travelers are forced into a 14-day hotel quarantine, which can be extended depending on the results of two mandatory PCR tests performed during this period.

Some quarantine exemptions have been granted, for example for athletes coming to the Australian Open, but this has resulted in major public setbacks.

How annoying was it?

Very. Since all arriving passengers must be quarantined in hotels, their number must be strictly controlled so that they do not exceed the hotel capacity.

For Sydney – the main port of arrival – this means that only around 1,500 incoming tickets can be sold per week. For smaller states it is less than 500.

That means 40,000 Australians have been stranded overseas, many with expired visas, which means they cannot get work in their host countries and rely on money sent from home to survive.

The rationing of tickets when demand is high has also increased the cost of flights. Returnees will have to pay a hotel bill of USD 1,700 for their time in mandatory quarantine, which means that some will no longer be able to return home.

The system has stranded tens of thousands of Australians overseas and has not stopped the need for bans – Victoria is stepping into a five day breaker today

Protesters in Victoria state confront police with a new lockdown going into effect despite all arrivals being quarantined

And the disruption wasn’t just limited to those overseas. Much of the Australian economy relies on tourists – either for the low skilled or for vacation spending – which means GDP has taken a hit.

In the second quarter of last year, the economy contracted a record 7 percent, and while it has recovered since then, 2020 is likely to be a year of stagnation for the entire country.

The disturbance has also hit the farms. Landowners report that the crops in the fields have rotted away due to a lack of pickers. The situation is likely to get worse if 26,000 workers are not found soon.

Meanwhile, Victoria state has been forced into repeated breaker shutdowns as cases keep escaping quarantine hotels, with one lasting 111 days last year.

The state only initiated another five-day shutdown today after cases of the British variant escaped from a quarantine hotel and caused 13 cases, leading to panic buying.

How bad would a disruption be in the UK?

It would probably be a lot worse. The UK is more connected to its neighbors, receives more passengers each year and relies more on imports to keep the economy going than Australia.

In 2018-19, the last year before the pandemic, the UK received around 145 million arrivals, including Brits returning from overseas, while Australia only received 21 million.

Even in 2020, when the pandemic brought global travel to a standstill, around 26 million people arrived in the UK from January to October – more than in Australia before the pandemic.

Around half of these arrivals were British citizens returning home. This means the UK runs the risk of stranding millions of citizens overseas if it introduces the kind of ticket rationing that is required for border closings to work.

Disruption to the UK border would be extreme – the UK welcomes 120 million more arrivals each year than Australia, meaning delays would be more affected

Such a move would potentially separate families and loved ones for years. Australia has not yet been able to say when its restrictions will end.

The Australian-style system would also prohibit anyone within the UK from flying overseas to see those who are stranded.

In the meantime, the UK could be forced into knee-jerk lockdowns like the ones seen in Victoria anytime cases escape quarantine or risk beating the point of the system.

While Australia has the ability to manage these locks from state to state, the UK is far smaller than most Australian states. This means nationwide circuit breaker lockouts could take effect even if only a handful of cases are detected.

The problems in British agriculture would also be greater than in Australia, as the UK is believed to be reliant on foreign labor for 99 percent of its agricultural labor during the harvest months.

The number of foreign workers needed to harvest British crops is also estimated at 40,000, roughly double the number Australia currently needs.

Many Britons would also be stranded overseas as the number of arrivals would be limited by the number of quarantine hotel rooms available

Would the system even work?

It’s doubtful. Australia is a naturally isolated country, far larger than the UK, has more natural resources and is therefore more self-sufficient than the UK.

Australia is a net exporter of goods – that is, it exports more than it imports each year – while the UK is a net importer – which means we rely on goods to come into the country to keep our economy going.

The inequality is particularly evident when it comes to food.

Australia is one of the world’s most food-safe nations: it produces far more food than its citizens can eat in a year and exports around 70 percent of its annual harvest.

Great Britain now only produces around 64 percent of its food and has to import large quantities – especially from Europe – to keep the supermarket shelves full.

Australia is a net exporter of goods, which means it produces more than it takes each year to function and sells the surplus overseas

The UK is now a net importer, which means we rely on goods to come into the country to keep the economy going

The UK is also more reliant on pharmaceutical imports than Australia, buying $ 9.2 million in 2019 while Australia bought just $ 3.5 million.

Since Britain could not function without these imports, the workers who transport them back and forth would have to be granted exemptions.

But for every exception granted, the UK puts a hole in its safety net – this allows suitcases to sneak into the back door even if the front doors remain tightly closed.

With the UK reliant on imports far more than Australia, our safety net would have far more holes in it.

The UK government is also hoping to use border closings to prevent new and potentially vaccine-damaging variants of Covid from entering the country, but even in Australia, this has proven impossible.

The Victorian lockdown was triggered because the British variant of the virus – believed to be 70 percent more contagious and up to 30 percent more deadly – escaped a quarantine hotel and spread to the local community.

New Zealand – another country considered a Covid success story – also reported the spread of the South African variant in Auckland earlier this year, although border closings were also used.

Exceptions would be granted for workers in the supply chain, but any exception is a safety net loophole – and the UK would have many more loopholes than Australia

How long would the system be on?

Nobody knows. While Australia has successfully reopened large parts of its economy, international travel is one area where plans have gone bad.

Ministers said late last year that they had hoped to have a quarantine-free “travel corridor” with New Zealand by Christmas, but two months later they are far from achieving it.

Currently, the “corridor” only works one way, so New Zealanders can get into Australia, but not the other way.

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is considering letting Australians into the country after ministers abruptly stopped all travel in January when cases of the South African variant were discovered on their shores.

She has questioned whether New Zealand airlines would be willing to operate in an environment where closings can happen on short notice.

In the meantime, plans to bring back foreign students, which should have happened before Christmas, have been abandoned.