KABUL, Afghanistan – Both the Afghan government and its enemies of the Taliban appear to be preparing for a violent spring as it is uncertain whether the Biden government will meet the May 1 deadline for all American troops to be withdrawn from Afghanistan.
On Thursday, the Pentagon questioned whether the withdrawal agreed in a US-Taliban peace deal of February 2020 would go according to plan, as the future government of Biden reviews its predecessor’s deal. This declaration followed warlike statements by the Taliban and Afghan government officials, which were compounded by waves of violence across the country.
“Without fulfilling their commitments to renounce terrorism and stop the violent attacks on the Afghan national security forces, it is very difficult to find a concrete way to negotiate a solution,” said Pentagon spokesman John F. Kirby at one Press conference. “But we are still committed to it.”
Zabihullah Mujahid, a Taliban spokesman, said Friday on social media that Mr. Kirby’s allegations were “unfounded”.
The deal between the Taliban and the US government resulted in the withdrawal of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan in exchange for the Taliban’s pledges to fight terrorism and a promise to press the Afghan government to release 5,000 prisoners. The move was the United States’ strongest attempt to date to break free from its longest war and possibly pave the way for the future inclusion of the Taliban in the Afghan government.
But the talks excluded the Afghan government and, according to Afghan officials, made them feel aloof and unheard. Under former President Donald J. Trump, they said US diplomats often ignored concerns from Kabul in order to expedite negotiations.
There are currently 2,500 US soldiers in Afghanistan, up from 12,000 last year. And while the Afghan government is in favor of the withdrawal of Western forces, it wants a slower schedule than the one agreed with the Taliban.
Now there is the prospect that the uncertainty about compliance with the troop withdrawal deadline could spark even more violence.
As peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban stall in Doha, Qatar, the Washington review will examine the Taliban’s commitments to sever ties with terrorist groups and reduce agreed violence.
US officials have long insisted that the deal be “conditional,” and failure of the Taliban to meet those conditions would expand the presence of US forces in the country.
Preparing for the spring fighting season, the Taliban are already well positioned in several Afghan cities, having achieved steady growth across the country in recent years.
The recent remarks by the White House in Biden have sent Afghan President Ghani and other government officials a more reassuring message, raising hopes that they will no longer pause and that Americans will not leave anytime soon.
Afghan National Security Advisor Hamdullah Mohib unleashed a severe shame against the Taliban last week when he spoke to a group of Afghan commandos at an air base outside of Kabul.
“They have proven that they have no desire for peace and that they are a terrorist organization,” said Mohib, who has long been spreading such harsh rhetoric. His most recent remarks came after a phone call with his new US colleague Jake Sullivan.
Afghan officials have said privately that Mr Sullivan’s hour-long phone call restored some level of trust between the government of Ghana and the White House and made them confident that their voices will be heard if peace talks continue in Doha.
On Thursday, the new Foreign Minister, Antony J. Blinken, spoke to Mr. Ghani and expressed “the US wish that all Afghan leaders support this historic opportunity for peace while preserving the progress made over the past 20 years”.
The assurances from the White House that the Ghani government will have adequate lines of communication with Mr Biden’s cabinet also appear to reflect the Afghan government’s concern over the decision by the US, Zalmay Khalilzad, the diplomat who oversees the US-Taliban negotiations spearheaded that ruled the US to maintain, disperse Afghan government.
Mr. Khalilzad will report on a “very organized” decision-making process, Mr. Ghani said during a virtual appearance at the Aspen Security Forum, adding that he expects a “predictable relationship” with the Biden administration.
Some Afghan officials distrust Mr Khalilzad and have been hostile to his dialogue with the Taliban under the Trump administration, particularly his pressure on them to release the approximately 5,000 Taliban prisoners in the hope that a reduction in violence would follow.
It was not like that. But it paved the way for talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban, which began in Doha in September.
Asfandyar Mir, a postdoctoral fellow at Stanford University, said an additional complication for the Biden administration was that the Afghan government was a “house divided” with rivalries.
Many Afghan officials believe that the Taliban have only one interest: to seize power by force. And all parties to the conflict agree that failure to meet the deadline for troop withdrawal in May could quickly change the balance established on the country’s battlefields and run the risk of launching concerted Taliban efforts to enter the cities.
In the meantime, the regional powers, particularly Iran and Pakistan, are waiting to see what comes next under Mr Biden.
Iran, for example, received Taliban deputy leader Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar in Tehran on Wednesday, which could be seen as evidence of the country’s willingness to play a more active role in the talks.
Iran’s participation in the Afghan war has shifted since 2001, underscoring the changing geopolitical currents during the war. On the one hand, Tehran’s official line has denounced the return of the Taliban as a direct threat to Iran. On the other hand, Iranian activists of the insurgent group in southwestern Afghanistan have quietly made overtures and offered weapons and other equipment, Afghan officials say.
The Taliban “do not trust the United States and we will fight any group that is a mercenary for the United States,” Baradar was quoted as saying in the Iranian news media in an obvious reference to the Afghan government.
But just a month earlier, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif offered an Iranian-trained Afghan Shiite militia to serve the Kabul government in the “fight against terrorism”. He spoke in an interview with an Afghan news agency.
Officials here took this as a clear signal from his powerful neighbor that they intend to continue meddling in the Afghan conflict.
A Taliban delegation met with officials in Moscow earlier this week, and on Friday Abbas Stanekzai, a Taliban negotiator, told reporters that the Ghani government was not “honest about peace”.
Abdullah Abdullah, the chairman of the Afghan Governing Council that led the peace negotiations, expressed pessimism on Thursday in an interview with the New York Times.
“The Taliban have taken a kind of maximalist position,” said Abdullah. “Before the negotiations, we were convinced that the violence would be reduced significantly,” he added.
“The Taliban’s recent stance has not been encouraging,” said Abdullah, noting that the group has not yet had to make a promised break with Al-Qaeda, the terrorist group responsible for the 9/11 attacks and the main reason behind the invasion US forces entered the country in 2001.
Despite waves of targeted murders across the country – striking fear in some of Afghanistan’s most populous cities, including Kabul – the Afghan Independent Human Rights Commission found that civilian deaths had decreased by more than 20 percent compared to 2019.
According to the report, 8,500 civilians were killed and wounded in Afghanistan in 2020.
Najim Rahim and Fahim Abed contributed to the coverage.
